Lottery True EV
Per-ticket expected return = Σ (prize ÷ odds). EV is that minus the ticket price. Pre-tax, ignoring jackpot sharing.
Expected return
$2.68
Per ticket, long-run
EV
$-2.32
Return minus ticket price
EV ratio
-46.48%
EV as % of ticket price
Per-tier expected contribution
| Prize | Odds | Per-ticket value |
|---|---|---|
| $70000000.00 | 1 in 33,294,800 | $2.10 |
| $311868.00 | 1 in 4,756,400 | $0.07 |
| $6237.00 | 1 in 113,248 | $0.06 |
| $218.00 | 1 in 37,749 | $0.01 |
| $5.00 | 1 in 1,584 | $0.00 |
| $20.00 | 1 in 791 | $0.03 |
| $20.00 | 1 in 56 | $0.36 |
| $5.00 | 1 in 81 | $0.06 |
Caveats
- Jackpot sharing. When the jackpot rolls high, the expected number of winners exceeds 1, and the jackpot tier's effective prize is the jackpot ÷ expected winners. This calculator doesn't model that — divide the jackpot tier yourself when the jackpot is large.
- Tax. Canadian recreational lottery winnings are not taxed federally; the calculator's EV is therefore the take-home for a Canadian resident, but US lottery EVs need a haircut for federal + state withholding.
- Time value. Annuity-vs-lump-sum decisions for jackpots reduce the lump-sum face value materially. Canadian lotteries pay lump sum, so this matters less than for US Powerball/Mega Millions.